Peramalan Bencana Alam di Kota Semarang dengan Menggunakan Markov Chains

Abstract

Indonesia, as a country with complex geological conditions due to the convergence of various tectonic plates, is highly susceptible to natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. The city of Semarang, as the capital of Central Java Province, also frequently faces disasters such as floods, landslides, and earthquakes. Predicting the occurrence of natural disasters becomes crucial to mitigate the negative impacts they cause. This study uses the Markov chain method to predict natural disasters in the city of Semarang based on disaster data from 2018-2022. The prediction results indicate a 16% chance of floods, 34% chance of landslides, 10% chance of tornadoes, 22% chance of fires, and 17% chance of falling trees in 2023. Validation of the predictions against actual data for 2023 shows a relatively good match for floods and fires, but there are significant differences in the predictions for tornadoes and falling trees. These results indicate that the Markov chain method has potential in predicting disaster occurrences, but accuracy improvements are needed to account for weather variability and dynamic environmental factors. This research is expected to assist the government and society in enhancing disaster preparedness and mitigation in the future.